In terms of what worries me the most, the findings from the UK that a home-detection kit will probably be unreliable for people who have minor symptoms (because there is such a wide range of antibody response) and yet are contagious is really is a blow. If it was possible to have a fairly simple test, then we could roll out widespread testing and then the uninfected (or the people who recovered from coronavirus and are not longer contagious) could start going back to work. Now it looks like it will be a much longer period to gear up to testing the general population, and it may simply prove infeasible. So the lockdown will go on for months. I kind of intellectually knew this, but it is still hard to have even my faint hopes dashed.
Another fairly depressing finding is that the coronavirus can be passed to pets, particularly felines (aka cats and tigers!) and then apparently can be spread to other cats. The question of whether cats can get it in the first place was raised because some household cats had come down with the virus, though there hasn't been much real-world testing of how easy it is to spread the disease amongst cats. The expert consensus at the moment is generally that they can't spread it back to humans, though given how much we don't know about this virus and how quickly the state of knowledge changes, I wouldn't bet on this being viewed as true 3-6 months from now. I certainly hope cats can't spread back to humans, but I don't see any real reason why they wouldn't be a vector of transmission. This will likely swing the balance away from advocacy groups who try to prevent city staff from rounding up and euthanizing feral cats (as they can no longer be spayed/neutered in the current crisis).
On a side note, I had thought it might be nice to rescue a cat in these circumstances, but most of the shelters have closed, and now it turns out that a stray cat could potentially be a virus carrier. Sigh. Well, I guess this just gives me a bit more time to clean up the house to the point where I could have a cat or kitten after this is all over.
As I probably mentioned, it is a bit depressing how quickly the "new normal" becomes normal. Now queuing for groceries is pretty much taken for granted, and presumably most of us are glad we can still do that. I did fashion a poor home-made mask to using while riding and queuing (and wore gloves of course), and I will probably break out the sewing machine and try to make something better shortly.
Down south, they are engaging in some very questionable "America First" behaviour, including apparently stealing shipments of medical supplies destined for other countries, as well as Trump pressuring 3M to stop shipping N95 masks to Canada. This raised a lot of hackles up here, and then it was pointed out that quite a few of the materials in the N95 masks came from Canada in the first place. The White House is trying to walk this back a bit, saying the order was only to prevent "profiteering," but it is such a transparent lie. Probably no one really cares what excuse Trump's handlers come up with as long as the masks get shipped. In the meantime, Doug Ford is looking to restart manufacturing of critical medical items within Canada, which is probably not a bad idea at all, now that it is so clear what a fair-weather friend the US (under Trump) is turning out to be. (Not that this is a surprise at all...)
There are certainly people pushing back against the restrictions, and city staff have had to turn people away from some of the more popular parks (High Park and the Scarborough Bluffs in particular), but most people seem to understand and comply with the restrictions. The message is sometimes confusing. In fact, on Sat. I saw a mini-billboard saying that all Toronto parks were closed, but I didn't take a photo. Today, the sign was updated to say that park amenities were closed, so someone may have jumped the gun a bit.
However, the beaches are apparently a Provincial responsibility, and they are closed. Now it is true that there is a steep fine if people are caught in the parks (and obviously on the beaches) violating the social distancing rules. But as of today, we can still go out and even walk in the parks for exercise, so long as we stay apart from each other. I have been able to take several long bike rides this weekend, and I am certainly hoping that this stays the case as the weather continues to improve. In particular, I really hope to bike downtown again next weekend.
In Ontario new infections and deaths are increasing steadily, though I would say that they are not doubling every day or increasing exponentially. I can't say that we have truly bent the curve (though apparently they have out in BC). I really wish the new cases were tapering off, but it could be much, much worse. Canada's death rate (so far) is well below the US and almost all of Western Europe (even Sweden), so that is positive for sure.
Teachers are slowly gearing up for the new reality of on-line learning (and to his credit Ford has not rubbed it in that he envisioned on-line instruction as the wave of the future...). They are well aware of the difficulties this will cause households without computers or internet, and apparently the TDSB is shipping out 28,000 Chromebooks, laptops and iPads to students who need them. I know that my son's classes are basically already in full swing, and he has had homework all last week. It's been a bit more gradual for my daughter, but she has had a few assignments and will have more this coming week. I think it will still be a huge challenge for high school juniors and to a lesser extent seniors to get the grades in places for college admissions, but TDSB has a plan to generate grades and to promote children into the next grade in the fall. There will certainly be a lot of catching up to do in the fall, but I suppose most parents and even the students would prefer this to repeating a grade.
As an aside, I still don't think they'll be able to come up with a reasonable plan in the UK, as the whole system is so geared towards the outcome of the A-level exams, which they won't be able to sit. But frankly that is not my concern at the moment. I'll spare a moment to send out well wishes to their clownish PM, Boris Johnson, who has been admitted into the hospital with lingering symptoms of the coronavirus. From what I've read, if you don't have a minor case, in the second week of infection, the body actually starts attacking its own organs, and you can go downhill very quickly. Hopefully, this is not the case for him. I do imagine that, assuming he recovers from this scare, he will be a changed man.
One thing that has been a bit inspiring is that the Canadian political class has been pragmatic and pulled together. All of the opposition parties are very much in favour of moving to a virtual sitting of Parliament, though perhaps with a small subset of members of the House actually present to take the actual key votes. This is in contrast to the US, where the Constitution has been read to mean House votes can only be taken with a quorum physically present (and one rogue Congressmen can jam up the works by insisting on following this to the letter). As you can imagine, this is causing yet more chaos down south.
On balance the news is still pretty grim, but there are a few positives if you probe a bit.
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